| March 17th is, of course, the day when | | | | of six tournaments three teams in the Elite |
| everyone is Irish, and it's also the | | | | Eight came from the same conference. In eight |
| mid-point between the NCAA Tournament's first | | | | of the last 11 Sweet Sixteen rounds, one |
| and second rounds (March 16-19, 2006). You're | | | | conference has contributed four teams and |
| a fool if you don't know that April 1st is | | | | last year nine of the sixteen came from three |
| when the Final Four contests commence, with | | | | conferences-the Big East, Big Ten, and ACC. |
| the NCAA National Championship being | | | | |
| determined on April 3rd. | | | | You'll want to look closely at top seeded |
| | | | teams from powerful conferences. Although |
| It is a crazy time of year all-around and | | | | it's called "March Madness," remember that |
| college basketball embraces this insanity | | | | wagering on teams that are presently strong |
| whole-heartedly. If you're planning on | | | | and have been strong contenders in the past |
| wagering on March Madness-the biggest | | | | may be conservative but it makes sense. Look |
| sporting event of the month and one of the | | | | for a conference that has at least four teams |
| most heavily bet events each year-you may | | | | in the tournament and stick with them. Odds |
| want to consider a few important facts when | | | | are that you'll have someone in the Sweet |
| choosing your brackets or making a | | | | Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four. |
| team-on-team wager. | | | | |
| | | | Also, consider a well-conditioned 10 or 12 |
| March Madness features 65 teams from some of | | | | seed for one of your picks. Why? Since 1997 |
| the best known and also from some of the | | | | each Sweet Sixteen round has had at least one |
| lesser-known college hoop conferences. | | | | 10 seed and in five of the last seven Sweet |
| Certainly you'll see teams from the | | | | Sixteen's a 12 seed has been there. How do |
| prestigious Atlantic Coast, Big East, PAC-10, | | | | seven, eight, and nine seeds do? They don't |
| SEC, Big 12 and Big 10, and you'll also find | | | | even come close to performing the way 10's |
| various other conferences represented, such | | | | and 12's do. However, more often than not a |
| as the Metro Atlantic, Big Sky, Big South and | | | | three to eight seed makes it to the final |
| America East. Most fans will have heard of | | | | four. Do your homework and pick one from this |
| and know something about the teams from the | | | | group to become a member of that heralded |
| more competitive conferences, however the | | | | quartet. |
| schools from conferences that are not closely | | | | |
| followed during the year are often difficult | | | | Team and Tournament Specifics: |
| for even experts to analyze. | | | | |
| | | | If you're serious about wagering, you'll want |
| In the first round, bottom seeds contend | | | | to read at least one or more of the many |
| against top seeds with the results usually | | | | in-depth reports available through various |
| being predictable-the top seeds more often | | | | media-magazines, newspapers, and the Web. A |
| than not win. However, as far as covering | | | | good report will include an analysis of the |
| goes, that's a different story. When you | | | | team, especially the point guard and the |
| look at underdog teams from lower ranked | | | | interior players, road and home record, |
| conferences they rarely win, but about half | | | | recent performance, playing style, turnover |
| of the time they beat the spread, which | | | | ratio, penchant for committing fouls, |
| spells "upset" for the bettor. | | | | injuries, tournament history, bench, and |
| | | | coaching. |
| Whether you're considering the first round or | | | | |
| focused on the Sweet Sixteen, which is when | | | | As an example, consider these few key |
| making your picks gets extremely difficult, | | | | elements as they relate to the tournament. |
| here are a few guidelines to help you make | | | | |
| productive wagers. | | | | Point Guard and Interior Players: |
| | | | |
| Ranked Number 1? Big Deal: | | | | Point guards are often the playmakers on the |
| | | | court-controlling the tempo, keeping the team |
| In the last 20 years, the team nationally | | | | on the same page; and leading by example. A |
| ranked number one going into the tournament | | | | sound, dynamic point guard can be the |
| has won it only three times. Since 1966 the | | | | difference between long-term survival and |
| top three NCAA teams have all battled it out | | | | immediate elimination. As the stakes get |
| in the Final Four only once. Let's face it, | | | | higher, the position becomes even more |
| most teams competing in March Madness are | | | | important. |
| pretty good and when you come down to it, | | | | |
| what's the difference between the seventh and | | | | Strong, solid interior players who can bang |
| first ranked team? Not a whole lot. This is | | | | inside and control the boards are essential. |
| especially true in a sport where during the | | | | Teams in the top conferences work hard to |
| regular season there have been virtually no | | | | secure guys who will wear down and dominate |
| head-to-head match-ups between initial | | | | other teams inside. The Big East, ACC, Big |
| tournament participants. An additional fly in | | | | 12, Big 10 and PAC-10 are noted for tough, |
| this year's ointment are the numerous | | | | interior play. In this brutal tournament |
| conference changes that various teams have | | | | these types of players can be the difference |
| initiated, with more than a half-dozen | | | | in the second half of any and every game. |
| perennial March Madness contenders switching | | | | |
| leagues. | | | | Fouls: |
| | | | |
| The bottom line is-do your homework. Read up | | | | A team with key players who get into foul |
| on the teams and find one or two experts who | | | | trouble can be in big trouble in the |
| have crunched the numbers for you and really | | | | tournament. The best of the best referees |
| analyzed each club according to how they've | | | | will be officiating and they won't hesitate |
| performed in various situations. | | | | to make a call no matter how close the game |
| | | | is or how little time is left. During crunch |
| Some Things Won't Change (Probably): | | | | time, when mistakes tend to happen, is also |
| | | | when cool-headed experience can pay off for a |
| Teams that play well on the road tend to do | | | | team. |
| well in the March Madness frenzy, where | | | | |
| almost every team, except for the top seeds, | | | | The Bench: |
| play away from comfortable, familiar | | | | |
| surroundings. So, if a team has been a road | | | | It's a long road from the March 14th tip-off |
| warrior all season, they will probably | | | | to the April 3rd final game showdown. A deep, |
| continue to be that same animal in March and | | | | mature bench offers a huge advantage to any |
| possibly into April. | | | | team. There's no way around it, every player |
| | | | is important during this three-week period. |
| During March Madness teams usually step it | | | | |
| up, performing at an extremely high level. If | | | | Turnover Ratio: |
| throughout the regular season a team has | | | | |
| played and consistently beat good teams, | | | | If teams are making mistakes during the |
| chances are they will continue to do so from | | | | regular season, they will continue to do so |
| March 14th to April 3rd. It is a tough, | | | | in the post season. Turnovers will kill any |
| grueling tournament, and you want to back | | | | team's chances of advancing to the next |
| teams that can step up to the challenge every | | | | round. Again, think-point guard and the |
| time. Who are they? They tend to be the clubs | | | | bench. |
| that have been stepping up all season. | | | | |
| | | | Toughness: |
| More experience and less talent will more | | | | |
| often than not beat more talent and less | | | | How do you evaluate toughness? First look at |
| experience. Why? It's the nature of March | | | | the coach and his staff. Consider how |
| Madness. Teams are under a lot of pressure, | | | | disciplined the team is. Find a time when the |
| playing in unknown arenas and in the national | | | | team lost a tough one or got blown out and |
| spotlight against teams they've never seen. | | | | look at how they responded. Don't just |
| There's a lot of travel and little rest | | | | consider the next game but the next series of |
| between games, which translates into an | | | | contests. Did they meet that opponent again? |
| advantage for a team that's been there before | | | | |
| with a coach who has experience in the March | | | | How durable are the starters and how driven |
| Madness pressure cooker. | | | | are they to play? Is this a team that has |
| | | | players sitting all the time due to injury? |
| Numbers That Don't Lie (Well, Usually They | | | | |
| Don't): | | | | Is there one guy, a true team leader, who may |
| | | | not be the most talented player on the court |
| There are no guarantees when it comes to any | | | | but is savvy, dedicated, and focused on one |
| sporting contest. With that in mind, here are | | | | thing-winning? Does he push the other players |
| a few basic statistical observations to | | | | to excel through example, team play, and |
| consider. When it comes to championships and | | | | determined grit? |
| March Madness, 13 of the last 15 teams have | | | | |
| either been a number one or two seed. In the | | | | Another part of toughness relates to a team's |
| past 26 years (since 1979), the final two | | | | legs or ability to play up-tempo ball. If a |
| teams vying for the championship have been | | | | team can control the tempo and run with the |
| there before. (Limits the field a little bit, | | | | best of them, they're not going to give up, |
| doesn't it?) Finally, in the last 24 years | | | | and they will usually not be intimidated. If |
| there has always been a number one seed in | | | | pushed, they'll push back. They'll counter |
| the Final Four. Do long shots win it all? In | | | | the energy of the other team every time. |
| this contest, hardly ever and certainly not | | | | |
| in the last quarter century. | | | | These are just a few ways to assess a team's |
| | | | toughness, which translates into durability |
| Conferences are important. If a team plays | | | | and resiliency. Both are needed to go deep |
| in an elite conference, has faced the type of | | | | into the NCAA Tournament. |
| competition that a tough conference offers, | | | | |
| and has done well in their conference, they | | | | A Final Thought on the Final Four: |
| are definitely a contender. If they play | | | | |
| consistently well, that means more than the | | | | Often people make gut choices rather than |
| occasional blowout victory amongst various | | | | analyzing a team's performance, reading some |
| games they've blown in the final minute. Look | | | | expert analysis, and considering match-ups |
| for teams that play well under pressure. | | | | and trends. If you really want to go deep |
| | | | into the tournament, then do your homework. |
| With those tips in mind, you'll want to | | | | It can payoff, taking you to the National |
| consider that in the past seven NCAA | | | | Championship by insuring that you make sane |
| Tournaments, two teams in the Final Four came | | | | picks without bending to the pressures of |
| from the same conference and in the last five | | | | March Madness. |